Luck and the statistics panel

[sabalzen]

Following on from a post by silent in the 'Luck system, a little report by a newbie' thread, that I can't reply to, as its been locked...

I noticed that when playing 2p multiplayer against the computer AI on random maps the 'Damage taken' statistic is almost always significantly positive - my last few games read +8%, +9%, +8%, +10%, +10%, +2%, +7%, and the half-dozen before that were all similar, although I didn't note the values. These are the final values at the end of the game (usually around turn 30 or so). 'Damage inflicted' is always much closer to the expected value (+0%).

I confess I didn't understand silent's explanation, except that apparently this isn't appalling bad luck on my part, nor is it the AI cheating, but its something to do with my playing style. Now if my playing style is leading me to take 10% more damage than I ought to, I'd like to change it... ...but what do I have to change?

Does everyone get skewed statistics like this? Can I skew it in the other direction?

[Incidentally, all the factions were randomly chosen in these battles (other than I seem to almost always get loyalists or drakes) and I won all these battles quite comfortably, if that makes any difference.]

[Maeglin Dubh]

Meta-threads are frowned upon here, and usually locked on sight.

HOWEVER!

I see that you do have a genuine question, that I think does need a genuine answer, just one that I lack the knowledge to provide.

SO!

I'm putting off any locking action until someone who knows what they're talking about steps in to explain the reasoning behind the statistics panel and its effects on your gameplay.

[hiro hito]

http://www.wesnoth.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=24777

[silene]

I confess I didn't understand silene's explanation, except that apparently this isn't appalling bad luck on my part, nor is it the AI cheating, but its something to do with my playing style. Now if my playing style is leading me to take 10% more damage than I ought to, I'd like to change it...

First, note that, in the example I was giving, the playstyle that was minimizing the skew is the worst playstyle of the two (considerably less damage inflicted overall). So, although such a playstyle would limit the skew, you would lose all your battles.

Second, if your opponent is particularly unlucky in killing your units but is not unlucky overall, then the total damage you have taken will be more than expected (relatively). In other words, if you are lucky in saving your units from desperate situations, then your opponent will appear "lucky" in the statistic panel.

To summarize, as long as you are winning your battles, don't worry too much about the statistic panel; it may be precisely due to your winning the battles.

Finally, here comes the obvious disclaimer: there is no reason for the statistic panel to be bug-free and the skew may be caused by a bug. As a matter of fact, no later than yesterday, I fixed a rare but significant skew in it.

[sabalzen]

Second, if your opponent is particularly unlucky in killing your units but is not unlucky overall, then the total damage you have taken will be more than expected (relatively). In other words, if you are lucky in saving your units from desperate situations, then your opponent will appear "lucky" in the statistic panel.

Thanks for the explanation, and I think I've understood it this time. Though can I alter that to 'if you are skilled in saving your units from desperate situations...' so that I can feel smug?

[P.S. Abject apologies for getting your name wrong - and Silene are such pretty flowers too, it should have stuck in my mind!]