A real story - skill vs luck

[5dPZ]

This is a real but funny story I had yesterday:

I introduced this friend of mine to Wesnoth 1 month ago, he played some compaigns, and played some MP games with me. I would say he is out of newbie level and among the medicro players. However, he stopped this game because he claims "it is all about luck", "you can only win if you are lucky". I tried to convince him how skill is important and can win the game without any luck - but failed since he always believes "even you are good player, you need luck to win".

Yesterday, we are both bored, and I suggested to play some wesnoth to see that I can use skill instead of luck to beat him.

First game: random vs random - I got elf, he got orcs
I beat him on turn 8, because I blocked his retreat path during Dawn with a scout in forest, then rackoned his army during days.
friend: I don't know how to use orcs, if I use dwarf (my friend's fav faction), I beat you.
me: why don't you choose dwarf then?

2nd game: random vs dwarf - I got dwarf too.
me: ok, now we are equal on faction, only skill and luck matter now.
friend: sure.
I beat him on turn 18, I checked statistics: I dealt +7%, and received +3%.
me: ok, see? stat looks fair, what do you say now?
friend: because when we had a big war on turn 12, I should have killed your gryphon with 2 units, but instead I had to use 3 units. You were too lucky and I lost the game because of that move.
me: but you were lucky on some other turns.
friend: but that turn matters the MOST, in this game, you lose the game if you are unlucky in one turn, you know?
me: ok, ok, let's roll back.

We reloaded turn 12 auto-save:
He tried to kill my gryphon, took his 2 units to do it.
me: ok, we continue? now you only used 2 units on gryphon.
friend: you know, if im a bit luckier, i can kill it with 1 unit.
me: ..... ok, let's rewind.

Reload turn 12 until he killed my gryphon with 1 unit:
me: ok, you got it, let's continue?
friend: now things gonna be different, I will beat you now.
me: ok, let's continue, i will show u that skills are decision factor.

He got super lucky, killed 2 of other my units that turn. I checked stat: he got +40% dmg dealt that turn.
me: wow, thats really lucky.
friend: i am going to win now.

We keep playing, he got very lucky since the reload. my overall stat is -20% dealt, +20% received for 20 turns. He pushed me all the way to my base, taking my villages on the way. The game look like I am finished.
friend: told you this game is all about luck.
me: hey, but that is SUPER lucky.
friend: i don't care, i beat you.
me: not yet, you need to kill my leader.

I was in bad shape. He cleared his way on the left (due to luck), go around my units on the right side (I used cheap outlaws vs his dwarfs, I can't do much to stop him, only able to hold my villages), and he bought 3 gryphons in the middle assaulting my leader just because he got the gold. On one hand , I need to defend my leader (a rogue) from his forces from 3 sides, the other hand, I need to regrab the villages I lost.

So my strategy was retreat and defend my castles, and grab his village on the right side, since his units passed my line for my leader, and his money were on gryphons which also went for my leader, thus not defending his own villages on the right side.

I tried my best ZOCing around my leader, but he managed to kill my dwarf on castle with luck, and have a gryphon attacking my leader, who he is able to kill with only 1 hit (51% kill chance). However, he missed both hits. After that I continue to ZOCs and ZOCs, and he never was able to reach my leader again, until I totally destroyed all his offensives (while stolen most of his villages as well).
me: what do you say now?
friend: you got lucky that turn, I could have killed your leader, I had 50% chance.
me: hey, but don't you think you are TOO lucky in previous turns? how can you even touch my leader if you aren't that lucky?
friend: in wesnoth, you need to keep being lucky to win.
me: then how did I just beat you?
friend:......
me: do you believe that if you give me a lucky turn like you got earlier, if you give me the positions that you once had, you would never turn the table like I did despite that I got unlucky later?
friend: yeah, you played this game for very long.
me: that's my point, SKILL matters, not luck.
friend: of course, there are skills involved in all games.
me: but didn't you always claim that Wesnoth is all luck?
friend: ......

Well, that's the whole story, hope you enjoyed it.

[JW]

Clearly your friend is right and you are wrong.

[Wintermute]

I really enjoyed this story! Thanks for posting it.

[Turuk]

You should introduce your friend to the facepalm. It sounds like he will be needing it.

[TheMasterOfBattle]

Nice story 5dPZ! I loled.

[lamperouge]

haha yes... very enjoyable to read. Although it would be interesting to try to argue how much each factor (skill and luck) have to do with winning. Do you think it is 50%-50%, or does one factor weigh more than the other? I think that it is around 75% skill and 25% luck. An experienced player will own a noob any day, luck or no luck. A slightly less experienced player can, however, beat someone who is technically better if that player has a bit more luck than the other.
Basically, luck is only an excuse with the closer matchups. Even then I would say that maybe 1/5 of the games I play are drastically changed by lucky rolls

[Max]

haha yes... very enjoyable to read. Although it would be interesting to try to argue how much each factor (skill and luck) have to do with winning. Do you think it is 50%-50%, or does one factor weigh more than the other? I think that it is around 75% skill and 25% luck.

it depends on the map and setup of the game. the larger the map, the more units are involved the bigger the skill/luck ratio...

[cretin]

haha i like that story. well done 5dPZ

[SaintDust]

What a great way to convince any new player who tends to side with luck, that it skill triumphs over it.
I would aggree with 75%/25% ratio since skill and position and proper unit recruitment matter more so than getting lucky.
The luck factor is 1 among several other factors of this game that is used to overcome your opponent.
It can be annoying to new players to try to hit a unit with 40% with 6 attacks and only land 1. I see many players rush in and place their units on bad terrains trying to finish the kill off and then end up lossing those units to a better skilled player.
I am one of them.
Patience is the key to victory in almost every game i have lost and played.

[hiro hito]

I wait for the same story which related a match between 2 good old players....

I think the end will have a bad taste for one of them....

[Faello]

Unfortunately, most of the new players think as your friend. His way of thinking also shows that he doesn't understand concept of probability well. Sure he could get lucky, here, here and here and enemy could not hit at all, but what chance does he have for something like this going to happen ?

But going back to the luck - It's annoying (at least for me) when I've really bad luck (like -20/+20 or even higher) and opponent acts like "I'm whipping you bro!" or when my team mate (I still play a lot of random games even if I prefer playing with good players ) whines about my strategy when it's obvious for me, that should work fine, but large amount of bad luck screws me over again and again.

When I'm very lucky, I ALWAYS say it loudly and apologise other player for his lack of proper hits-per-attacks amount to comfort him and tell him that I'm fully aware, that with more fair luck, situation would look better for him and I'd really prefer if luck wouldn't go to some crazy values (like +30/-10 for one side for example) because it's incredibly annoying and happens quite a lot of time.

That's main vice of this game - RNG going crazy quite often.

Speaking frankly, after reading whole threads about luck and how it affects the game, I still think some limit should be put on being lucky/unlucky, though I don't know how to implement such a thing without getting so called "sure hits" aka "my bad luck reached it's limit, so now I'm SURE that I'll hit".

I love this game, but some ridiculous RNG values I get quite often (+ or - ) really take a pleasure from winning/playing at all.

[Turuk]

That's main vice of this game - RNG going crazy quite often.

Speaking frankly, after reading whole threads about luck and how it affects the game, I still think some limit should be put on being lucky/unlucky, though I don't know how to implement such a thing without getting so called "sure hits" aka "my bad luck reached it's limit, so now I'm SURE that I'll hit".

I love this game, but some ridiculous RNG values I get quite often (+ or - ) really take a pleasure from winning/playing at all.

Guess what. I split this thread once to avoid turning it into a potential hijack by starting a debate on luck/RNG. Leave it alone.

[Faello]

Ok, so where's the luck part of the thread that you split ? I would like to discuss it there if I'm forbidden to do it here.

[Turuk]

It was split to off-topic and locked as it was merely a rehash of points that the users have brought up and addressed in the past. I do not encourage you to bring it up again, as if you search through the forums you can find numerous threads that discuss luck/RNG in Wesnoth, and the issue has been debated endlessly. The game will not be fundamentally altered, and so any more discussion of the issue serves little purpose.